Estimating population density and disease transmission in salmon farms

We have developed models to estimate population density in salmon farms, and to predict how diseases spread among the fish. The models are also used to simulate various scenarios in order to examine how different control measures may allieviate the burden of diseases.

The figure shows a simulation scenario over time using various control strategies between 2019 and 2029, highlighted in different colours. To the left of the graph is a historical records in black.
Caption: Reported number of ISA cases until 2018 and simulated number of cases from 2019 under six different control strategies. Figure: NR.

Salmon farming is one of Norway’s largest export industries, and an important supplier of seafood globally. A significant contributor to the Norwegian economy, salmon farming provides jobs and stability for numerous coastal communities in the country.

Ensuring fish farming sustainability

The parasitic salmon louse and virus diseases such as Pancreas Disease (PD) and Infectious Salmon Anaemia (ISA) threaten the sustainability of salmon farming. In collaboration with the Norwegian Veterinary Institute (NVI), we have developed models for the spread of lice and virus diseases. We have also used the models for scenario simulation (what-if analysis) to investigate the effect of measures for reducing the burden of these diseases. Such measures include vaccination, culling of infected fish stock and relocating fish farms. 

Our models have been utilised in various projects for Norwegian authorities, aquaculture organisations, and private companies, both during and after the project period.

Project: Host Density and pathogen transmission in salmon aquaculture: effects of increased production and pathogen control policies 

Partner: Norwegian Veterinary Institute (NVI)

Funding: The Research Council of Norway

Period: 2016-2020