Joint Russian Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) Report 2026 | Havforskningsinstituttet

On 30th March 2022 all Russian participation in ICES was temporally suspended. Although the announcement of the suspension stressed the role of ICES as a “multilateral science organization”, this suspension applied not only to research activities but also to the ICES work providing fisheries advice for the sustainable management of fish stocks and ecosystems. On 9th December 2024 Russia announced its intention to leave ICES, and this came into effect on 9th December 2025. As a result, since 2022 the ICES AFWG has provided advice only for saithe, coastal cod north, coastal cod south, and golden redfish. Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod, haddock, beaked redfish, Greenland halibut, and capelin assessments have been conducted outside of ICES in a bilateral Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) and should not be considered as ICES advice. Although this work has been conducted independently of ICES, the methodologies agreed at ICES benchmarks and agreed HCRs (Harvest Control Rules) have been followed in providing this advice.

The chapter numbering in this report is not continuous (Chapter 2,5 and 7 are missing). This is done in order to be consistent with the chapter numbering in ICES AFWG reports.

In 2026 we are giving annual advice for NEA cod, NEA haddock, beaked redfish, and a two-year advice for Greenland halibut. The beaked redfish typically has a two-year advice, however this stock is in the process of a benchmark model revision. Therefore, we issue single year advice this year, with the intention of reverting to two-year advice next year following the results of the benchmark.

In 2025 TAC quota was set above advice for cod, haddock and Greenland halibut. In 2026 the quota was above advice for cod and Greenland halibut. We note that cod, in particular, is in an extremely sensitive situation, with projected future recruitment to the fishery estimated to be very low in the medium term. Therefore, any future TAC over advice poses a real risk of reversing the projected modest upturn in the stock.

Advice on fishing opportunities for NEA cod
The NEA cod stock is continuing to decline following a prolonged period of moderate to poor recruitment, and is currently below Bpa but above Blim. The stock is forecast to rise next year as moderate recruitment enters the fishable stock. However, projections for recruitment in the following years are very low. As a result, the stock is projected to stabilize a little above Bpa , provided the advice is followed. The yearclasses entering the fishery now are therefore critical to the medium-term development of the stock, and overfishing these would pose a risk of an extended period of stock below precautionary levels.

There was a model revision this year, to better account for the different levels of uncertainty at different magnitudes of catches. This is the same method as used for haddock and now the ICES NEA saithe assessment and has improved both the fit to the data and slightly improved the model retro. This revision has slightly revised up the stock estimate.

Following the agreed HCR, the advice for 2027 is that catches should be no more than 312 667 tonnes, up from an advice of 269 440 tonnes and a quota of 285 000 tonnes in 2026. Provided that this advice is followed, then projections indicate that the stock should start to rise slightly and then stabilize at moderately low but safe levels. It should be stressed that this quota advice is higher than would be expected from the current state of the stock (which would give a quota advice of 272 528 tonnes) because the HCR accounts for the projected increase in the stock. F urther quota above advice could be expected to delay any recovery for this stock, and potentially lead to further decline.

Advice on fishing opportunities for NEA haddock
Following a period of low recruitment, the stock is rising as a result of relatively good yearclasses in 2021 and 2022 currently entering the fishery.

Following the agreed HCR, the advice is that catches in 2027 should not exceed 180 336 tonnes, up from an advice and quota of 153 293 tonnes in 2026. Provided that these incoming yearclasses are not heavily caught at small sizes, then then this should lead to a continued increase in stock and catches as long as the advice is followed. In recent years there has been a rise in the catch of small haddock, and if this is not curtailed then there is a risk that a large part of the incoming yearclasses could be fished before reaching a size to give optimum yield.

Advice on fishing opportunities for Greenland halibut
The stock is on a downward trajectory towards Bpa. However, improved recruitment is now entering the adult and the fishable biomass. This gives a potential to reverse the downward trend provided fishing pressure is kept at appropriate levels. The total biomass is project to rise slightly in 2026 if the advice is followed, although it will take several more years for the female SSB to begin to rise. There has been an upwards retrospective revision for the Greenland halibut stock, as a result of which the stock is now assessed as being above Bpa, compared with the 2024 assessment which projected the stock to fall below Bpa in the course of 2024.

The advice is that catches in 2027 should be no more than 19 610 tonnes, and catches in 2028 should be no more than 19 914. These are higher than the advice of 12 431 tonnes for 2025 and 14 891 tonnes for 2026, but lower than the TAC (19 000 for both years) and lower again than the estimated catches of 20 652 tonnes in 2025. We stress that we present a total quota advice, which includes catches in international waters and a small area of UK waters. This stock has a history of quota and catches being set above advice, and then catches above the TAC, which has led to the decline of the stock.

Advice on fishing opportunities for beaked redfish
The stock is at a high level, with SSB relatively stable. Recent recruitment is slightly down on the peak levels around 2020, but is still at good levels and well above the low levels seen in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The stock is fished at a moderate fishing pressure in line with advice.

The current model is considered rather uncertain (largely due to lack of a coherent survey coverage and limited age data), with a high degree of annual retrospective adjustments, and there is no accepted precautionary Fmsy level. A benchmark revision is in process. Therefore, a single year’s advice is presented this year, instead of the typical two-year advice. The aim is to revert to two-year advice next year.

The catch advice is no more than 67 090 tonnes in 2027, compared to an advice of 67 191 tonnes in 2025 and 69 177 tonnes in 2026. TAC has historically been set following advice. It should be noted that because there is not an agreed precautionary Fmsy value for this stock, a “status quo F” approach is used to set the advice. It is therefore possible that the significant changes in the quota advice could occur following the benchmark once an appropriate target fishing mortality can be evaluated.