Maturity model for resilient transport infrastructure

The transport sector is undergoing profound transformation driven by digitalization, electrification, increasing interconnectivity, and evolving geopolitical and environmental pressures. These developments introduce new vulnerabilities while simultaneously reshaping the long-term risk landscape. Existing resilience maturity models, such as the CERT Resilience Management Model (CERT-RMM), provide valuable support for improving operational resilience through structured process improvement. However, they are primarily concerned with managing current risks and disruptions and provide limited support for anticipating how future developments may fundamentally alter resilience requirements.

This report investigates how maturity models can be used to support the long-term resilience of transport infrastructure in Norway. It introduces a conceptual distinction between operational resilience, which manages today's risks, and strategic resilience, which manages the evolution of tomorrow's risk landscape. Building on resilience research, futures methodologies, and the CERT-RMM framework, the report proposes a generic maturity model extension aimed at strengthening organizations' capacity to anticipate and adapt to long-term change. This extension is designed to complement rather than replace existing operational maturity models and can be integrated with frameworks already used by transport infrastructure operators. By embedding strategic foresight and continuous adaptation into existing resilience management processes, the proposed approach aims to strengthen the long-term resilience of transport infrastructure in an increasingly uncertain and rapidly changing environment.