Addressing Configuration Uncertainty in Well Conditioning for a Rule-Based Model

Rule-based reservoir models incorporate rules that mimic actual sediment deposition processes for accurate representation of geological patterns of sediment accumulation. Bayesian methods combine rule-based reservoir modelling and well data, with geometry and placement rules as part of the prior and well data accounted for by the likelihood. The focus here is on a shallow marine shoreface geometry of ordered sedimentary packages called bedsets. Shoreline advance and sediment build-up are described through progradation and aggradation parameters linked to individual bedset objects. Conditioning on data from non-vertical wells is studied. The emphasis is on the role of ‘configurations’—the order and arrangement of bedsets as observed within well intersections in establishing the coupling between well observations and modelled objects. A conditioning algorithm is presented that explicitly integrates uncertainty about configurations for observed intersections between the well and the bedset surfaces. As data volumes increase and model complexity grows, the proposed conditioning method eventually becomes computationally infeasible. It has significant potential, however, to support the development of more complex models and conditioning methods by serving as a reference for consistency in conditioning.