Scenario Barents Sea. A tool for evaluating fisheries management regimes

The issues of scenario modelling in general is discussed. A distinction is drawn between uncertainty experiments aimed at capturing both statistical and extra-statistical uncertainty, and probing experiments aimed at investigating particular issues. The scenario model concidered is a multi-species fishery model with cod, herring and capelin, and with sevaral fishery fleets differentiated with respect to seasonality and selection pattern. Several VPA-based management strategies are compared in an uncertainty experiment with 13 factors in a fractional factorial design.