
Professor II
Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir
- Department Statistical modelling and machine learning
- Phone number +47 22 85 25 60
- E-mail thordis@nr.no
Publications
- 194 publications found
- Publisher
Contribution to the Discussion of 'Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response' by Wood et al Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society), (ISSN 0964-1998 1467-985X ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnaf080 , 2025. Scientific article
Probabilistic rainy season onset prediction over the greater horn of africa based on long-range multi-model ensemble forecasts Climate Dynamics, vol. 62, pp. 3587 3604 , (ISSN 0930-7575 1432-0894 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07085-y , 2024. Scientific article
Areal reduction factors from gridded data products Journal of Hydrology, vol. 635, pp. 1 12 , (ISSN 0022-1694 1879-2707 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131177 , 2024. Scientific article
Demand changes over time in the short-term rental markets 2024. Scientific lecture
Widespread Risk of Extreme Precipitation and Flooding , 2024. Report
Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir; Evaluating forecasts of extreme events 2024. Scientific lecture
Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir; Evaluating forecasts of extreme events 2024. Scientific lecture
Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir; Evaluating forecasts of extreme events 2024. Scientific lecture
Validation of point process predictions with proper scoring rules Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, vol. 51, pp. 1533 1566 , (ISSN 0303-6898 1467-9469 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjos.12736 , 2024. Scientific article
Assessing uncertainty in hydrological projections arising from local-scale internal variability of climate Journal of Hydrology, vol. 620, (ISSN 0022-1694 1879-2707 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129415 , 2023. Scientific article
From weather to climate predictions 2023. Scientific lecture
Yield predictions of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) in Norway under future climate scenarios Agricultural and Food Science, vol. 32, pp. 80 93 , (ISSN 1459-6067 1795-1895 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.23986/afsci.127935 , 2023. Scientific article
Assessing risk of water damage to buildings under current and future climates 2023. Scientific lecture
Flexible and consistent Flood–Duration–Frequency modeling: A Bayesian approach Journal of Hydrology, vol. 620, (ISSN 0022-1694 1879-2707 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129448 , 2023. Scientific article
Thordis Thorarinsdottir; Statistical modelling of environmental extremes 2023. Scientific lecture
Genetiske endringer i nord-norske timoteisorter over tid og ved oppformering på ulike breddegrader 2023. Scientific lecture
Securing adaptation of timothy cultivars under climate change and during seed multiplication 2023. Scientific lecture
Assessing present and future risk of water damage using building attributes, meteorology, and topography Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics), vol. 72, pp. 809 828 , (ISSN 0035-9254 1467-9876 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad043 , 2023. Scientific article
A Benchmarking Dataset for Seasonal Weather Forecasts , 2022. Report
Quantile based modeling of diurnal temperature range with the five-parameter lambda distribution Environmetrics, (ISSN 1180-4009 1099-095X ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2719 , 2022. Scientific article
Hvordan vet vi hvor tørr sommeren i Europa blir? / How to make a seasonal forecast , 2022. Media participation
Probabilistic prediction of the time to hard freeze using seasonal weather forecasts and survival time methods Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, (ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4403 , 2022. Scientific article
Potensialet i data 2022. Lecture
Climate Futures: Navigating climate risk 2022. Lecture
Extracting robust information from data 2022. Lecture
Regional flood-Duration-Frequency (QDF) Models for Norway 2022. Scientific lecture
New Flood-Duration-Frequency Models with a Focus on Estimation of Sub-daily Floods 2022. Scientific lecture
Flood-duration-frequency (QDF) Modeling: Updates and Current Status 2022. Scientific lecture
Consistent estimation of extreme precipitation and flooding across multiple durations 2022. Scientific lecture
Validation of point process predictions with proper scoring rules 2022. Scientific lecture
Consistent estimation of extreme precipitation and flooding across multiple durations 2022. Scientific lecture
Forecasting: theory and practice International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 38, pp. 705 871 , (ISSN 0169-2070 1872-8200 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001 , 2022. Scientific review article
Stedsbasert risiko for vannskader - fase 2: Effekten av bygningsegenskaper, meteorologi og topografi 2021. Report
Consistent intensity-duration-frequency curves by post-processing of estimated Bayesian posterior quantiles Journal of Hydrology, vol. 603, pp. 1 15 , (ISSN 0022-1694 1879-2707 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127000 , 2021. Scientific article
New methods for making consistent IDF curves for Norway 2021. Lecture
Qifen Yuan; Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir; Stein Beldring; Wai Kwok Wong; Chong-Yu Xu; Bridging the scale gap: obtaining high-resolution stochastic simulations of gridded daily precipitation in a future climate Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 25, pp. 5259 5275 , (ISSN 1027-5606 1607-7938 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5259-2021 , 2021. Scientific article
Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir; Erik Wilhelm Kolstad; Om klimarisiko , 2021. Media interview
Machine learning vs statistical methods for climate data analysis 2021. Scientific lecture
On the importance of statistics and machine learning in climate research 2021. Scientific lecture
Forecast evaluation part II 2021. Scientific lecture
Forecast evaluation part I 2021. Scientific lecture
Forecast evaluation part III 2021. Scientific lecture
The Climate Futures Center for Research-based Innovation 2021. Lecture
Prediksjon av lavvann ved Åbjøra 2021. Report
A Bayesian approach to Flood-Duration-Analysis 2021. Scientific lecture
Bridging the scale gap: obtaining high-resolution stochastic simulations of gridded daily precipitation in a future climate Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS), vol. 25, pp. 5259 5275 , (ISSN 1027-5606 1607-7938 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5259-2021 , 2021. Scientific article
Spatial trend analysis of gridded temperature data at varying spatial scales Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography (ASCMO), vol. 6, pp. 1 12 , (ISSN 2364-3579 2364-3587 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-1-2020 , 2020. Scientific article
Multivariate Postprocessing Methods for High-Dimensional Seasonal Weather Forecasts Journal of the American Statistical Association, (ISSN 0162-1459 1537-274X ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2020.1769634 , 2020. Scientific article
Risikomodell for vannskader på bygninger 2020. Report
From weather to climate predictions 2020. Scientific lecture
Estimating seal pup production in the Greenland Sea by using Bayesian hierarchical modelling Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics), vol. 69, (ISSN 0035-9254 1467-9876 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12397 , 2020. Scientific article
Evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations of historical surface air temperature extremes using proper evaluation methods Environmental Research Letters, vol. 15, pp. 124041 124041 , (ISSN 1748-9326 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc778 , 2020. Scientific article
Predictive Inference Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Output International Statistical Review, (ISSN 0306-7734 1751-5823 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/insr.12405 , 2020. Scientific article
Rapid adjustment and post-processing of temperature forecast trajectories Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, (ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3718 , 2019. Scientific article
New approach for bias correction and stochastic downscaling of future projections for daily mean temperatures to a high-resolution grid Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, vol. 58, pp. 2617 2632 , (ISSN 1558-8424 1558-8432 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0086.1 , 2019. Scientific article
Local Climate Projections: A Little Money Goes a Long Way EOS, vol. 100, (ISSN 0096-3941 2324-9250 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EO133113 , 2019. Bookreview
Rapid adjustment of weather forecast trajectories 2019. Scientific lecture
On developing general and efficient inference algorithms for complicated hierarchical models 2019. Scientific lecture
Decision support for climate change adaptation: The importance of uncertainty assessment 2019. Scientific lecture
The effects of uncertainty on design flood estimation 2019. Scientific lecture
Statistical space-time projections of wave heights in the North Atlantic 2019. Scientific lecture
Validation of point process forecasts , 2019. Report
How to save Bergen from the sea? Decisions under uncertainty Significance, vol. 15, pp. 14 18 , (ISSN 1740-9705 1740-9713 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2018.01125.x , 2018. Article journal
Evaluation of design flood estimates - a case study for Norway Hydrology Research, vol. 49, pp. 450 465 , (ISSN 1998-9563 2224-7955 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2017.068 , 2018. Scientific article
Bayesian regional flood frequency analysis for large catchments Water Resources Research, vol. 54, pp. 6929 6947 , (ISSN 0043-1397 1944-7973 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR022460 , 2018. Scientific article
Verification: Assessment of Calibration and Accuracy pp. 155 186 , doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-812372-0.00006-6 , 2018. Scientific chapter / article / conference article
Statistical estimation of extreme floods 2018. Scientific lecture
Varsling av vær og klima i maskinlæringens tid. Hvor gode kan sesongvarslene bli? 2018. Scientific lecture
Bayesian modelling of cluster point process models 2018. Scientific lecture
Using nerve fibre data as a statistical laboratory 2018. Scientific lecture
Point processes: Models vs. inference 2018. Scientific lecture
Does Bayes beat squinting? Bayesian modelling of cluster point process models 2018. Scientific lecture
On developing general and efficient inference algorithms for complicated hierarchical models 2018. Scientific lecture
Spatial hierarchical modelling with a large number of potential covariates 2018. Scientific lecture
Bayesian hierarchical modeling of extreme flood events 2018. Scientific lecture
Evaluation of bias corrected precipitation output from the EURO-CORDEX climate ensemble (ISSN 9788253905570 ), , 2018. Report
Nytt rammeverk for flomestimering i Norge: Sluttrapport fra forskningsprosjektet FlomQ (ISSN 9788243610484 ), 2018. Report
Does Bayes beat squinting? Estimating unobserved aspects of a spatial cluster process , 2018. Report
Estimating seal pup production in the Greenland Sea using Bayesian hierarchical modeling , 2018. Report
New vigour involving statisticians to overcome ensemble fatigue Nature Climate Change, vol. 7, pp. 697 703 , (ISSN 1758-678X 1758-6798 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3393 , 2017. Scientific review article
Sea level adaptation decisions under uncertainty Water Resources Research, vol. 53, pp. 8147 8163 , (ISSN 0043-1397 1944-7973 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR020354 , 2017. Scientific article
Forecaster's dilemma: Extreme events and forecast evaluation Statistical Science, vol. 32, pp. 106 127 , (ISSN 0883-4237 2168-8745 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1214/16-STS588 , 2017. Scientific article
Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities Weather and Climate Extremes, vol. 18, pp. 65 74 , (ISSN 2212-0947 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2017.10.003 , 2017. Scientific article
Bayesian modelling of cluster point process models 2017. Scientific lecture
The role of uncertainty in evidence based climate change adaptation 2017. Scientific lecture
Probabilistic Forecasting of Temporal Trajectories of Regional Power Production 2017. Scientific lecture
Spatial trend analysis of gridded temperature data sets at varying spatial scales 2017. Scientific lecture
I don't know, are you sure you want to do this? 2017. Scientific lecture
Estimating the seal pup abundance in the Greenland Sea with Bayesian hierarchical modeling 2017. Scientific lecture
FlomQ: Improving flood estimation methods for dam safety in Norway 2017. Scientific lecture
Forecast evaluation I 2017. Scientific lecture
Forecast evaluation II 2017. Scientific lecture
Influence of reference period on evaluation of temperature output from the EURO-CORDEX climate ensemble using E-OBS data (ISSN 9788253905563 ), , 2017. Report
Evaluation of precipitation output from the EURO-CORDEX climate ensemble using E-OBS data (ISSN 9788253905556 ), , 2017. Report
Verification: assessment of calibration and accuracy , 2017. Report
Flomfrekvensanalyse for umålte felt 2016. Lecture
Assessing the Calibration of High-Dimensional Ensemble Forecasts Using Rank Histograms Journal of Computational And Graphical Statistics (JCGS), vol. 25, pp. 105 122 , (ISSN 1061-8600 1537-2715 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10618600.2014.977447 , 2016. Scientific article
Challenges of climate change adaptation: Practical and methodological challenges of climate change adaptation EOS, vol. 97, (ISSN 0096-3941 2324-9250 ), , 2016. Scientific article
Propagation of rating curve uncertainty in design flood estimation Water Resources Research, vol. 52, pp. 6897 6915 , (ISSN 0043-1397 1944-7973 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR018516 , 2016. Scientific article
Comments on: Of quantiles and expectiles: consistent scoring functions, Choquet representations and forecast rankings Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (Statistical Methodology), vol. 78, pp. 548 548 , (ISSN 1369-7412 1467-9868 ), 2016. Editorial
Estimating seal pup abundance with LGCP 2016. Scientific lecture
Regional flood frequency analysis for Norway 2016. Scientific lecture
FlomQ - Hvor sikkert kan dimensjoneringsgrunnlaget bestemmes? 2016. Scientific lecture
Regional flood frequency analysis for Norway 2016. Scientific lecture
Paths and pitfalls in model evaluation: The importance of being proper 2016. Scientific lecture
Regional flood frequency analysis for Norway 2016. Scientific lecture
Report from a workshop on practical and methodological challenges of climate change adaptation 2016. Report
Shape from texture using locally scaled point processes Image Analysis and Stereology, vol. 34, pp. 161 170 , (ISSN 1580-3139 1854-5165 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.5566/ias.1078 , 2015. Scientific article
Bayesian motion estimation for dust aerosols Annals of Applied Statistics, vol. 9, pp. 1298 1327 , (ISSN 1932-6157 1941-7330 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS835 , 2015. Scientific article
Spatial postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for temperature using nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression Monthly Weather Review, vol. 143, pp. 955 971 , (ISSN 0027-0644 1520-0493 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00210.1 , 2015. Scientific article
Bayesian hierarchical modeling of extreme hourly precipitation in Norway Environmetrics, vol. 26, pp. 89 106 , (ISSN 1180-4009 1099-095X ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2301 , 2015. Scientific article
Gaussian random particles with flexible Hausdorff dimension Advances in Applied Probability, vol. 47, pp. 307 327 , (ISSN 0001-8678 1475-6064 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1239/aap/1435236977 , 2015. Scientific article
Assessing the calibration of high-dimensional ensemble forecasts using rank histograms 2015. Scientific lecture
A robust flood estimation framework for Norway 2014. Lecture
FlomQ - flomberegningsprosjekt 2014. Lecture
FlomQ - A robust flood estimation framework for Norway 2014. Lecture
A framework for benchmarking of homogenisation algorithm performance on the global scale Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems, vol. 3, pp. 187 200 , (ISSN 2193-0856 2193-0864 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-3-187-2014 , 2014. Scientific article
Studying statistical methodology in climate research: Stats + climate workshop; Oslo, Norway, 11-13 November 2013 EOS, vol. 95, pp. 129 129 , (ISSN 0096-3941 2324-9250 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EO150008 , 2014. Scientific article
Concepts for benchmarking of homogenisation algorithm performance on the global scale Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems Discussions, vol. 4, pp. 235 270 , (ISSN 2193-0872 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gid-4-235-2014 , 2014. Scientific article
Comments on: Space-time wind speed forecasting for improved power system dispatch Test - An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 23, pp. 32 33 , (ISSN 1133-0686 1863-8260 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11749-014-0354-x , 2014. Editorial
Joint probabilistic forecasting of temporal trajectories of regional wind and solar power production 2014. Scientific lecture
Predicting temporal trajectories of regional wind and solar power production 2014. Scientific lecture
Joint probabilistic forecasting of temporal trajectories of regional wind and solar power production 2014. Scientific lecture
Using proper divergence functions to evaluate climate models 2014. Scientific lecture
Recovering the multivariate dependencies of statistically post-processed ensemble forecasts 2014. Scientific lecture
Evaluating probabilistic forecasts 2014. Scientific lecture
StfSpot - Short Term forecasts of Demand, Renewable Production and Spot Price - Version 8.0 2014. Report
Lecture notes on Bayesian inference 2014. Report
Data assimilation and statistical post-processing for numerical air quality predictions , 2014. Report
Visualizing in R - advanced plotting. Kurs 2013. Lecture
Calibration diagnostics for point process models via the probability integral transform Stat, vol. 2, pp. 150 158 , (ISSN 2049-1573 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/sta4.25 , 2013. Scientific article
Comparison of non-homogeneous regression models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, vol. 65, (ISSN 0280-6495 1600-0870 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.21206 , 2013. Scientific article
A note on moving average models for Gaussian random fields Statistics and Probability Letters, vol. 83, pp. 850 855 , (ISSN 0167-7152 1879-2103 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spl.2012.12.009 , 2013. Scientific article
Uncertainty quantification in complex simulation models using ensemble copula coupling Statistical Science, vol. 28, pp. 616 640 , (ISSN 0883-4237 2168-8745 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1214/13-STS443 , 2013. Scientific article
Using Proper Divergence Functions to Evaluate Climate Models SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification (JUQ), vol. 1, pp. 522 534 , (ISSN 2166-2525 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1137/130907550 , 2013. Scientific article
Using proper divergence functions to evaluate climate models 2013. Scientific lecture
Using proper divergence functions to evaluate climate models 2013. Scientific lecture
Geometric analysis of textured 3D scenes via locally scaled point processes 2013. Scientific lecture
Detecting the differences: Bayesian model selection framework for point process models 2013. Scientific lecture
Efficient framework for Bayesian inference in locally scaled point processes 2013. Scientific lecture
Paths and pitfalls in prediction verification 2013. Scientific lecture
Bayesian model selection for point process cluster models 2013. Scientific lecture
Assessing the calibration of high-dimensional forecasts via rank histograms 2013. Scientific lecture
Recovering the multivariate dependencies of statistically post-processed ensemble forecasts 2013. Scientific lecture
Status for og veier til bedre flomestimering i Norge , 2013. Report
A robust flood estimation framework for Norway 2013. Report
Annette Möller; Alex Lenkoski; Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir; Multivariate probabilistic forecasting using Bayesian model averaging and copulas Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, pp. 982 991 , doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2009 , 2013. Scientific article
What Happened to Discrete Chaos, the Quenouille Process, and the Sharp Markov Property? Some History of Stochastic Point Processes International Statistical Review, vol. 80, pp. 253 268 , (ISSN 0306-7734 1751-5823 ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1751-5823.2012.00181.x , 2012. Scientific review article
Forecast verification for extreme value distributions with an application to probabilistic peak wind prediction Environmetrics, vol. 23, pp. 579 594 , (ISSN 1180-4009 1099-095X ), doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2176 , 2012. Scientific article
Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts Promet (Offenbach), vol. 37, pp. 43 52 , (ISSN 0340-4552 2194-5950 ), 2012. Scientific article
Bayesian Inference for Non-Markovian Point Processes pp. 79 102 , doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-17086-7_4 , 2012. Scientific chapter / article / conference article
Proper scoring rules and divergences -- with an application to climate model ranking 2012. Scientific lecture
Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts 2012. Scientific lecture
Proper scoring rules and divergences to evaluate weather and climate models 2012. Scientific lecture
Bayesian model selection for point process cluster models 2012. Scientific lecture
A note on moving average models for Gaussian random fields , 2012. Report
What happened to discrete chaos, the Quenouille process, and the sharp Markov property? Some history of stochastic point processes , 2012. Report
Bayesian Inference for Non-Markovian Point Processes , 2010. Report